Harley-Davidson Q2 retail results projected by analyst

BMO Capital Markets analyst Gerrick Johnson has provided Powersports Business with a research note prior to Harley-Davidson’s Q2 2021 earnings call on Wednesday.

Johnson reports that BMO believes “Harley-Davidson's (HOG) 2Q21 results will be up significantly y/y against COVID-19 plant shutdowns last year at this time. Most importantly, retail demand continues to be strong, with the new Pan America Adventure Touring motorcycle and the Electra Glide Revival, part of the new ‘Icons Collection,’ selling very well. Also, feedback has been positive on the recently revealed Livewire One and Sportser S. Beyond retail performance, we think investors will key in on inventory levels, supply chain headwinds, and any update on the ongoing EU tariff situation.”

Johnson adds that BMO expects “US retail sales will increase +45%, with worldwide retail sales up +24% (-8% international).

“Based on Polk registration data, over the first two months of the quarter, Harley retail sales increased +71% y/y, or +8% vs. 2019. Across the board, dealers have commented that retail demand continues to be strong.

We expect 2Q21 revenue to be $1.4 billion, up +109% y/y, on shipments of 63,000 units (+122% y/y); we are in line with the Street consensus.

We expect HOG’s gross margin to expand to 33.0%, from 16.1%, while the Street consensus is 30.4%.”