Q2 Harley retail sales tracking at 4-5%, analyst says

Retail sales of Harley-Davidson will show moderate to low single-digit growth in the second fiscal quarter, according to a research note provided to Powersports Business by Citi Investment Research analyst Greg Badishkanian.

"Based on our dealer checks we see HOG US retail sales moderate to up low single digits in June vs. up 7-9% in May and up low single digits in April," Badishkanian reports. "However, comparisons got tougher throughout Q2 - June 2011 retail sales rose in the high teen range; May 2011 was around 10%; and April 2011 was down mid single digit. Overall, we're tracking 4-5% U.S. retail sales growth in Q2 vs. 26% growth in 1Q. We think Q2 was negatively impacted by pull forward of demand due to warmer winter weather into 1Q and 2Q."

Badishkanian also adds that "although trends are volatile month to month and we are encouraged that US retail sales have continued to grow (despite tougher sequential comparisons and a pull forward of demand in 1Q), we believe investors may view the June results modestly negative given mixed retail expectations that range from high single digit to low double-digit US retail sales growth in June."

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