Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder reports in a research note provided to Powersports Business after meetings with industry wholesale lending contacts in powersports, marine and RV that “collective U.S. Jan retail likely up slightly driven by ORV with more mixed motorcycle/snowmobile trends. Wholesale outpaced retail led by ORV and motorcycle.”
Turning to inventory in the powersports segment, Conder reports that “collective channel inventories remain healthy, but aging crept up slightly in Dec/Jan driven by snowmobile carryover anniversarying (13-14 months old), but we expect this to liquidate in Feb. Delinquencies were flat yr/yr at low levels. Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic for positive 2019 core powersports retail.”
Conder reports that January unit sales of >500cc motorcycles were down low-single-digits percent and <500cc motorcycle unit sales were up double digits percent.
Conder adds that solid low-single-digits to mid-single-digits percent growth in ORV is expected in 2019.
And in snowmobiles, “following a very strong Dec, Jan units –MSD% in U.S., +HSD% in Canada. The fluctuation is likely due in part to timing of OEMs shipments. Season-to-date N.A. units –LSD% but improving. Incentives remain high on MY18 carryover, while MY19 product is moving very well.”