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Harley-Davidson April retail estimates reported by analyst

Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder recently hosted an investor meeting with Harley-Davidson CFO John Olin as part of the company’s Midwest Powersports Tour.

April retail at Harley-Davidson dealerships “was likely flat to slightly down against a very easy comp with support of targeted equity offers,” Conder reports in a research note provided to Powersports Business.

Conder writes that investors “seem more confident in plans for entry into the higher-growth Middleweight market and Electric initiatives aimed at more urban riders but it likely will take time to stabilize the core. HOG's frustration in being caught in geopolitical crosshairs of tariffs/manufacturing was clearly evident. We only see near-term trading opportunities in HOG centered on quarterly retail prints with the only other major catalyst being EU tariff resolution, which we do not expect to occur until the auto tariffs are addressed in 6 months+. We intend to continue to monitor HDFS metrics, which could take several quarters to recover. In our view, overall risk/reward is balanced at current levels.”

“Retail Trends. We believe April retail was likely flat to slightly down against a very easy comp with support of targeted equity offers. Management also noted positive traction of new dealer incentives and more efficient marketing. Firming used pricing and balanced channel inventories also support improving (less negative) trends. Investors remain skeptical on sustainability of recent retail improvement given increased promotions.”

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