In a research note provided to Powersports Business following a meeting with industry wholesale lending contacts, Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder reports that indications are that the U.S. on-road motorcycle unit retail marketplace is trending flattish in November and down low-single-digits year-to-date.
Conder writes that the “heavyweight segment remains most challenged –HSD% YTD.”
Also, Conder adds that “collective U.S. ORV industry retail +MSD-HSD% Nov likely led by DOO/PII MY2018 SxS. ORV promotions becoming more rational as Textron is largely through clearing aged inventory and PII has moved MY2017 carryover. ATVs –LSD%/-LSD% Nov/YTD. SxS likely +DD%/+MSD-HSD% Nov/YTD. Canada ATV –HSD% Nov, but +LSD% YTD vs. easy comps. Some Rec SxS shortages cited.
“Snowmobile U.S. and Canada +meaningful DD% Oct-Nov driven by carryover promotions and better Ski-Doo product availability. Snowmobile aging materially improved. We remain optimistic for the winter 2017/2018 season weather forecast … and easy comps. Consumer backdrop constructive with economic indicators solid and oil stabilizing, despite weakening ag.”