Analyst reports on H-D Q4 unit retail sales

Harley-Davidson fourth quarter U.S. unit retail sales increased 3-4 percent over the year-ago period, which had increased 12.5 percent, according to a research note provided to Powersports Business by Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder. The data is based on dealer survey results.

Conder refers to the slight unit sales increase as “disappointing, “ while also noting “that the quarter is the smallest seasonally, and therefore, can be the most volatile. Collectively, our positive outlook is intact. Rushmore/Touring products continue to drive U.S. sales growth/outlook supported by the reintroduced Road Glide (historically ~9% of domestic and 5% of total volume). Street sell-through negatively impacted by misalignment of shipments (fully ramped in Q4 2014) vs. the spring/summer key season of entry-level buyers (this should correct in 2015).

Conder reports that dealers “still cite slow sales of Dynas/Softails, but inventory levels have improved over last quarter. Sportsters will likely struggle until the line is refreshed (MY2016?).”

Conder to reaffirm is Outperform rating on HOG stock.