Harley-Davidson U.S. retail estimate for Oct.-Nov. provided by analyst

Retail sales in the U.S. of Harley-Davidson motorcycles in recent months have been estimated in a research note provided to Powersports Business from UBS analyst Robin Farley.

UBS reports that October and November U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles are “looking to be down double-digit percent,” the report notes.

Farley writes that based “on our most recent channel checks, we believe Harley U.S. retail sales at the dealer level declined double-digit % both in Oct and in Nov. The decline is worse than expectations, which had been for single-digit declines, and a notable decline given the comp against Oct. hurricane disruption in Florida and Texas last year (FL and TX are 2nd and 3rd largest states for motorcycle retail, combined about 11-12% of total U.S.). Oct. and Nov. combined are typically around 72-73% of Harley’s Q4 U.S. retail sales and 11-12% of FY retail. We believe Harley’s U.S. retail performance in Oct. and Nov. was worse than the industry in Oct.-Nov., so Harley likely losing share after Q3 share loss of more than 200bps. We also note that Harley’s Oct.-Nov. decline in U.S. retail implies a YTD trend down double digits, a worsening rate of decline than last year’s -8.5%, in what is Harley’s fourth consecutive year of U.S. retail sales decline.”