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Analyst reports 2018 UTV U.S. retail growth expectations

A poor April at retail has been followed by a solid early May, Wells Fargo Securities senior analyst Tim Conder reports in a research note provided to Powersports Business. Conder recently met with industry wholesale lending contacts in the core powersports (motorcycle/ORV/snowmobile) industry, along with marine and RV sectors.

Here’s what he learned:

“Motorcycle/Off-Road Vehicle (ORV)/Snowmobile. April industry retail was very challenged due to cold weather across core powersports with the Midwest and Northeast down significantly, but better trends in the South, Southwest, and West. Retail trends stabilizing in early May. Core industry wholesale +LSD YTD (some pockets of weakness in the Northeast).

“On-highway motorcycle headwinds continue with ongoing Harley-Davidson weakness. Note CDK reported April SSS dollar sales for V-Twin dealers -9.9%, Metric dealers -5.9% with weakest areas the Midwest and Northeast (i.e., weather). Canada April core Powersports industry retail down similar to the U.S. (slightly worse ATV trends) likely also due to cold weather. Consolidated channel inv. metrics remain healthy with aging at its lowest level in 3 years. Oil price stability should begin translating into better core retail for LA, OK, TX, and SD. We continue to expect 2018 industry SxS retail +MSD%, ATV retail flat, with ongoing motorcycle structural headwinds.”

Check out exclusive data from Conder and Wells Fargo Securities in the 2018 edition of the Powersports Business Market Data Book, which goes to press later this month.

— Dave McMahon, editor in chief, Powersports Business

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