Analyst: 2016 second-half outlook similar to first half

By Dave McMahon
Editor in Chief

Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder recently hosted a conference call with his Wells Fargo Commercial Distribution Finance colleagues, and came away with the following in a research note provided to Powersports Business.

“The traditional North American powersports industry remains challenged YTD despite positive economic/environment indicators (real personal income, consumer credit outstanding, interest rates, unemployment, marine/RV retail, weather) due to sustained underperformance of employment/wage growth in key sectors (oil, ag, manufacturing, construction). Positively, industry aged channel inventory and inventory turns remain stable yr/yr at healthy levels. Promotions/incentives are flat yr/yr, but more surgically targeted at isolated aged inventory pockets. Initial August retail trends appear more favorable. H216 outlook similar to H116, with modest upside potential if employment metrics in key industries rebound. Overall, we remain near-term cautious on non-marine powersports names.”

In addition, Conder reports the following U.S. industry unit retail-July/YTD:

Motorcycles: (7%)/(3%)

ATV (5%)/(6%)

SxS +LSD% YTD

PWC +14%/+7%

U.S. CDF Portfolio Unit Trends-July/YTD:

Motorcycles (4%)/flattish

ATV (9%)/(5%)

Canada Industry Unit Retail-July/YTD

Motorcycles (10%)/+1%

ATV (14%)/(9%)

Canada CDF Portfolio Unit Trends-July/YTD:

Motorcycles (8%)/flattish

ATV (17%) YTD