Holiday retail spending predicted to rise with traffic decline

News release

RetailNext Inc., the worldwide leader in applied Big Data for physical retail stores, today announced positive predictions for U.S. retail over the Thanksgiving holiday and ‘Cyber-Monday’ — a 2 to 3 percent increase in brick-and-mortar sales to go along with a projected 16 to 18 percent increase in online sales.

“Our monthly Retail Performance Pulse provides valuable insights for this, the most critical time of year for our retailer customers, and combined with positive macroeconomic indicators, signals an optimistic Holiday outlook,” said Chitra Balasubramanian, head of business analytics at RetailNext. “This year, for the first time, RetailNext will publish a daily Thanksgiving Flash of its Retail Performance Pulse over the holiday weekend, providing frequent updates toward what we see as an increase in sales despite small decreases in store traffic.”

RetailNext’s daily Thanksgiving Flash is a daily composite of key in-store retail metrics for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, designed to showcase macro retail performance and enable brick-and-mortar retailers to benchmark their performance. Based on the monthly Retail Performance Pulse, the Flash is developed from specialty and large format retail stores on the RetailNext analytics platform and located within the continental U.S. It will be available starting Friday at

“Despite the dramatic growth of online sales, physical store retail still represents more than 90% of total industry sales,” said Marc Dietz, RetailNext’s Chief Marketing Officer. “With factors like online and mobile sales growth, omni-channel shopping habits including showrooming, and the holiday ‘creep’ of earlier sales, these Flash insights offer a macro-industry trend view and provide our customers with valuable metrics with which to understand and improve their individual in-store experiences.”

While improved general economic conditions will spur holiday shopping activity, U.S. consumers will likely continue to be value-focused as real, inflation-adjusted mean household income has remained flat for the last decade.

Based on retail trends and broader macro-economic data, RetailNext’s predictions for U.S. retail stores during Thanksgiving weekend are as follows:

Store traffic flat to slightly down (0% to 2% decline) year-over-year

Sales up 2-3% due to upticks in Average Transaction Value (ATV) and Conversion

Conversion up 1-2 points

ATV up 1%


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