Harley-Davidson Q3 retail sales ‘down to flattish,’ analyst says

Third-quarter retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the U.S. can be viewed as “down to flattish,” according to a research note provided to Powersports Business by Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder.

According to the report, “management commented that due to (1) shift in MYE from June to July and (2) York ERP implementation, July through mid-August saw virtually no shipments resulting in (1) very low levels of channel inventories during this period, (2) a more gradual rollout of new model units to dealers (full complement available Sept. 30).”

Conder writes that “we believe these dynamics have materially limited Q3 2012 retail sales (i.e. down to flattish). CYE2012 and 2013 U.S. channel should be lower yr/yr as retail will likely exceed shipments, while shipments should exceed retail in Q1-Q3 of both years given HOG’s season production flexibility at York and Kansas City.”