Chalk up “flattish” U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles in Q2 to the weather, according to a research note provided to Powersports Business from Wells Fargo Securities analyst Tim Conder.
“Our Q2 2013 spot channel checks indicate US retail sales are flattish with a wide variance of performance among dealers based on geographic weather,” Conder reports. “Other than weather, demand fundamentals (consumers willingness/ability to purchase, financing, strong used bike prices, etc.) remain solidly intact. Overall dealer inventories are healthy with only dealers in weather impacted areas citing higher yr/yr product levels. Dealers remain optimistic that Q3 2013 will see strong retail results enhanced by expected new Touring and Dyna product introductions, all vs. inventory deprived Q3 2012 easy comps. As a result of challenging Q2 2013 weather (and resultant retail) in parts of the US, Canada and Western Europe, we lower our 2013 shipment assumptions 3,050 units to roughly 260,525 (guidance 259,000-264,000) and our EPS to $3.25 (from $3.30 including restructurings), as we feel HOG will keep supply/ demand under tight control. Our 2014E EPS is fine-tuned to $3.93 (prior $3.94). …”
Conder goes on to write that at Harley-Davidson’s dealer meeting in Denver (beginning Aug. 19), “dealers are expecting (1) a new Touring sku while the Road Glide is ‘temporarily retired’, (2) larger engines for the Dyna family, (3) a new entry level training sku to replace the old Buell Blast used in the Rider's Edge program.”
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